Steel markets are weird. Cleveland-Cliffs beats Q1 estimates across the board, and what happens? The stock drops while competitors Steel Dynamics and Nucor rally. This disconnect creates opportunity — specifically, a chance to sell the $9 put expiring May 22nd for $0.28.
At $9.50, CLF sits just above our strike but well below its 200-day moving average of $11.41. The company's recent earnings beat shows operational execution despite margin pressures (profit margin sits at -0.1%, but that's improvement from prior quarters). With a beta of 1.92, this stock moves — and that volatility translates to premium. We're capturing 48.6% implied volatility on a name that analysts still see reaching $11.
The trade mechanics work in our favor. At -0.314 delta, we have roughly 31% probability of assignment at expiration. But assignment at $9 wouldn't be catastrophic for a company that just demonstrated it can exceed expectations in a challenging steel environment. The $0.28 premium provides decent cushion — we're effectively willing to own CLF at $8.72.
Steel is cyclical, commodity-driven, and prone to sentiment swings that don't always match fundamentals. Today's price action after solid earnings exemplifies this dynamic.
Watch for any shifts in infrastructure spending narratives or China steel production data that could move the entire sector.
Today's Atlas Trades
LUV — Short Put
- Strike: $37.0
- Expiration: 2026-05-22
- Premium: $1.16
- Stock Price: $39.35
- IV: 50.6%
- Delta: -0.300
- DTE: 29
TECK — Short Put
- Strike: $56.0
- Expiration: 2026-05-22
- Premium: $1.77
- Stock Price: $59.26
- IV: 49.4%
- Delta: -0.310
- DTE: 29
FCX — Short Put
- Strike: $66.0
- Expiration: 2026-05-22
- Premium: $2.05
- Stock Price: $70.36
- IV: 51.1%
- Delta: -0.296
- DTE: 29
CLF — Short Put
- Strike: $9.0
- Expiration: 2026-05-22
- Premium: $0.28
- Stock Price: $9.50
- IV: 48.6%
- Delta: -0.314
- DTE: 29
GE — Short Put
- Strike: $260.0
- Expiration: 2026-05-22
- Premium: $7.3
- Stock Price: $276.29
- IV: 47.3%
- Delta: -0.293
- DTE: 29
TSCO — Short Put
- Strike: $37.0
- Expiration: 2026-05-22
- Premium: $1.08
- Stock Price: $38.96
- IV: 45.6%
- Delta: -0.312
- DTE: 29
TSLA — Short Put
- Strike: $370.0
- Expiration: 2026-05-22
- Premium: $11.08
- Stock Price: $387.51
- IV: 44.6%
- Delta: -0.325
- DTE: 29
BSX — Short Put
- Strike: $62.0
- Expiration: 2026-05-22
- Premium: $1.96
- Stock Price: $64.87
- IV: 45.9%
- Delta: -0.331
- DTE: 29
FUTU — Short Put
- Strike: $150.0
- Expiration: 2026-05-22
- Premium: $4.36
- Stock Price: $160.80
- IV: 50.9%
- Delta: -0.282
- DTE: 29
GTLB — Short Put
- Strike: $20.5
- Expiration: 2026-05-22
- Premium: $0.58
- Stock Price: $22.36
- IV: 55.2%
- Delta: -0.256
- DTE: 29
NOW — Short Put
- Strike: $94.0
- Expiration: 2026-05-22
- Premium: $2.7
- Stock Price: $103.07
- IV: 57.1%
- Delta: -0.251
- DTE: 29
NOK — Short Put
- Strike: $9.0
- Expiration: 2026-05-29
- Premium: $0.26
- Stock Price: $9.86
- IV: 51.6%
- Delta: -0.253
- DTE: 36